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Length: 1408 (0x580)
Types: TextFile
Names: »STAT.MOD«
└─⟦6ae1c04a5⟧ Bits:30004364 SW1656 IFPS/Personal Version 2.10 release 1.1
└─ ⟦this⟧ »STAT.MOD«
COLUMNS 1..48
ØØ
ØØ This model projects a twelve month forecast based on 3 years
ØØ of data. The data shows a seasonal trend over a twelve month
ØØ cycle; the projections can take that into account by performing
ØØ a regression on the moving average of the trends.
ØØ
UNITS=HISTORY FOR 36,PREVIOUS 12
MONTH=1,PREVIOUS + 1
ØØ
ØØ The length of each seasonal cycle is 12 months
ØØ
CENTERED MOVING AVG=MEAN(PREVIOUS 6 UNITS,FUTURE 5 UNITS) FOR 36,'
TREND(MONTH)
ØØ
ØØ The ratio of actual-to-moving avg isolates seasonal components
ØØ
RATIO=UNITS / CENTERED MOVING AVG * 100
ØØ
ØØ Move ratios to a 12 column format for easier data handling.
ØØ
YEAR 1=VMATRIX(FUTURE RATIO,MONTH) FOR 12,0
YEAR 2=VMATRIX(FUTURE RATIO,MONTH + 12) FOR 12,0
YEAR 3=VMATRIX(FUTURE RATIO,MONTH + 24) FOR 12,0
AVERAGE=SUM(YEAR 1 .. YEAR 3) / 3
ACCUMULATED AVERAGE = AVERAGE + PREVIOUS
ØØ
ØØ Calculate the leveling factor to ensure
ØØ valid comparisons across years.
ØØ
LEVELING FACTOR=1200 / ACCUMULATED AVERAGEÆ12Å
SEASONAL INDEX=AVERAGE * LEVELING FACTOR
FORECAST=0 FOR 36,CENTERED MOVING AVG * '
VMATRIX(SEASONAL INDEX,MONTH - 36) / 100
ØØ
ØØ DATA:
HISTORY=131,119,110,100,90,79,89,106,120,133,130,144,'
147,145,117,102,95,86,94,111,127,142,149,156,'
160,160,140,121,103,103,113,129,147,164,161,161,'
PREVIOUS 12
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