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Length: 4221 (0x107d)
Types: TextFile
Names: »example.exp«
└─⟦b20c6495f⟧ Bits:30007238 EUUGD18: Wien-båndet, efterår 1987
└─⟦this⟧ »EUUGD18/General/Bidding/example.exp«
In a flight B (0-1500) matchpoint event at the California Capitol Regional last weekend, I picked up the following hand, white against red: Spades: 9 Hearts: A K Q 9 3 2 Diamonds: K Q J Clubs: A 6 2 Dealer on my left passed, partner (a disciplined preemptor) opened 3 diamonds, and RHO overcalled 3 spades. Decide what you would do before you read on. \f I reasoned as follows: I am sure that partner has 7 diamonds to the ace, and does not have the spade ace. Therefore, barring an unlikely 6NT, the only reasonable spots are 6 diamonds and 6 hearts. I'm not sure which is best. Can I get partner's help? I can't double, as that would be penality. I can't bid 4 hearts; that isn't forcing. I could say 5 hearts, inviting 6 with good trump. But will partner know that xxx or Jx is excellent support, and 2 small might be good enough? Bidding 5 hearts is likely to miss slam. The only reasonable forcing sequence begins with 4 spades. Partner will probably say 5 diamonds, and and then where am I? I can say 5 hearts, but I doubt that this is forcing. Will she raise to six on xxx or Jx? (I'm not sure I want to be in 6 hearts opposite xx, since the chances of a 3-2 heart split is probably less than normal. I may analyze this later.) Partner is a good player, but she is not psychic. I judged it more likely that she would pass 5 hearts than that she would correctly bid 6 on Jx or xxx. So I decided that I must bid 6 diamonds or 6 hearts myself. I judged that 6 diamonds virtually 100%, and 6 hearts maybe 50%. Since any slam will beat everyone not in slam, I bid 6 diamonds. Turns out that partner had Jx in hearts, and 6 hearts makes. However, we got a 10 (of 12 top) for bidding and making 6 diamonds. But I wondered if I did the right thing. This is exactly the sort of problem which computers are helpful in analyzing. It so happens that I have a program which will let me generate large numbers of deals conforming to various criteria. So I did it. I made the following assumptions: 1) LHO has less than 11 HCP, and not 6 spades or 7 clubs. 2) Partner has 7 diamonds to the ace, less than 11 HCP, no 4 card major, does not have the ace of spades, and does not have 5 clubs. 3) RHO has 5 or 6 losers, and at least 5 spades. 4) I hold the given hand. I then generated 100 such deals and hand inspected them. I threw out some that I judged RHO would pass, double, or overcall something else. (Usually 4 spades, but there were a couple of hands with 5 spades and 6 clubs that I, at least, would bid 4 clubs on.) I generated more deals to bring the total up to 100. I analyzed these by hand. Results: 51 times both slams make. Two of these make 7, because partner has a spade void. Three will also make 6NT (from the right side) because partner has spade king. 39 times 6D makes, but 6H doesn't. One of these also makes 6NT, as partner has the spade king. 4 times 6H does not make, and 6D can be beat on what I consider an unlikely defense. (Twice my RHO must underlead the spade ace to get a heart ruff, once he must underlead the AKQJ (!) to get a heart ruff, and once he must give his partner a heart ruff on opening lead, or after cashing one spade.) 3 times 6H does not make, and 6D can be beat on good defense. (Spade king led and overtaken to return a heart, ruffed. Dummy (my hand) will show that this is the only place a trick could come from.) 2 times 6H makes, but 6D will not on an unlikely ruff. 1 time 6D makes, but 6H will not on an unlikely ruff. If we assume good but not inspired defense, and ignore the unlikely 6NT and 7 level contacts, then we have: 6 hearts makes, 6 diamonds does not: 0 6 diamonds makes, 6 hearts does not: 43 Both make: 54 Neither make: 3 Conclusions: 6 diamonds was a good call. It beats everybody not in slam, ties those in 6 diamonds, and beats those in 6 hearts almost half the time. 6 hearts beats everyone not in 6 hearts about half the time, but loses to everybody about half the time. There is also the fact that when 6 hearts goes down, it frequently goes down more than one, sometimes doubled (e.g. when LHO has five to the jack.) John Oswalt (..!sun!megatest!jao)